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  • Internal Rivalry A Key Risk To Regime (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)
    BMI View: We believe that internal rivalry among North Korea's key power-holders and their organisations will increase over the next few years, as they jockey for influence in preparation for the post-Kim Jong Il era, and that this could prove destabilising. Nonetheless, we still believe that a military-dominated collective leadership is the likeliest outcome after Kim dies.

  • Taiwan (Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia)
    Taiwan saw industrial production up 30.7% y-o-y in May, down slightly from a 32.0% y-o-y increase in April. While y-o-y figures are set to continue moderating as low-base effects diminish, we are encouraged that industrial production continued rising (by 2.5% m-o-m) and actually made an all-time high. The reading is in line with our expectations that Taiwan's economy will see a very strong expansion over the course of 2010, with real economic growth forecast to hit 5.9%.

  • Caution Warranted Despite 4.1% Growth Estimate (Asia Monitor - South Asia)
    With growth estimated to have come in at 4.1% in FY2009/10, the Pakistani economy is showing increasing signs of ongoing recovery. However, despite this flash estimate we remain cautious on the prospect of a return to the booming growth enjoyed through the middle of the last decade. Indeed, Pakistan remains beset by challenges such as a destabilising insurgency and chronic lack of electricity generation capacity - both likely to prove medium-term hurdles to sustained economic development.

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Pakistan (Asia Monitor - South Asia)
    Consumer price inflation (CPI) moderated slightly to 13.1% in May, from 13.3% in the month prior. The reading is in line with our view that high levels of inflation in the Pakistan economy will persist over the medium-term, limiting the scope for the State Bank of Pakistan to utilise interest rate cuts to stoke domestic demand. We forecast CPI at 13.1% by end-FY2009/10 (July-June), dropping to 10.1% over the course of FY2010/11.

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Cambodia (Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1)
    We are optimistic that the depreciation of the Cambodian riel in recent months will benefit its tourism industry and exports going forward. The weakening currency , which is trading at 4226 KHR/US$ as of June 29 endorses our view of a pickup in economic activity for Cambodia in 2010. We believe the tourism sector in particular will be the main beneficiary of the weaker currency as tourists find Cambodia becoming increasingly attractive as a holiday destination.